Pick a game
The schedule, records and results update live from ESPN for the current season.
SPORTS GAME SIMULATOR · 14 LEAGUES
Play the game
before it’s played.
Pick any NFL, college football, NBA, NHL, MLB or soccer game. Mel’s Playbook simulates it thousands of times using this season’s numbers and the betting line. You see who wins how often, the likely score and where the model disagrees with Vegas.
Free account. Works on your phone, tablet or computer.
HOW IT WORKS
Three steps, about ten seconds.
Choose how many runs
Anything from 100 to 1 million. Every run uses the original Mel’s Playbook models on our engine, and you can stop it whenever you want.
Read the report
Win probability, projected score, the likely scoring range and the team stats that drove it. Want a different take? Adjust the model and compare.
TRACK RECORD
Every pick, graded in public.
Before kickoff we save the model’s pick for each game, along with the settings used. After the final, it’s graded. Picks are never changed after the fact, and anything saved after kickoff is kept out of the record.
Pregame picks saved–Loading…
Winners picked correctly–Graded games only
Avg. miss: margin / total–In points. Lower is better.
Brier score–How well the percentages held up, 0 to 1. Lower is better.
How picks are graded
A pick counts only if it was saved before the scheduled kickoff while the game was still listed as upcoming. The final score grades the original pick; running the game again later never replaces it. Ties don’t count toward winner accuracy or Brier score, but do count toward scoring error.
Save times come from our own system. The record is new, so treat early numbers as early.
LEAGUES
Every league runs the original models.
The same simulation engines that powered the Mel’s Playbook app: drive-by-drive football, player-level basketball and hockey, pitch-informed baseball and goal models for soccer. They retrain on finished games every morning.
NFL
Live schedules, this season’s team stats and drive simulations.
College football
Every FBS game, with the same drive model.
Basketball
NBA · WNBA · Men’s and women’s college
Everything else
MLB · NHL · Premier League · La Liga · Bundesliga · Serie A · Ligue 1 · World Cup · PGA (manual fields)
GET STARTED
Make your free account.
Simulate any game in 14 leagues, tune the model to your own read and track how your picks hold up.